Central European University - Department of Economics

Advanced Time Series Analysis

Course Information and Reading List

Lecture Notes

Exercises  

Data Sets

Reading

Exams

Time Series Modelling 4 Home Page

                    James Davidson's Home Page   

                   ***  Ox Console Installation File ***


 

Lecture Notes

Please note: these draft lecture notes are subject to amendment prior to the lecture. There may be additions, subtractions and corrections. Please check for updates.  

 1. Basic Time Series Concepts 2, Stochastic Difference Equations
 3. Statistical theory and asymptotics 4. Estimating AR and MA Models
5. ARMA Models and Forecasting 6. Trends and Integrated Processes
7. Long Memory Models 8. ARCH and Other Nonlinear Models
9. Multiple Regression and Model Selection
 

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Exercises

 

Exercise 1
  Exercise 2
  Exercise 3
  Exercise 4
  Exercise 5       TSM Settings for Ex5
  Exercise 6     TSM Settings for Ex6
  Exercise 7

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Data Sets

Dollar exchange rates, daily 1980-1996 (Datastream)

 
Dow-Jones stock index, daily 1980-1994   
US economic series, annual 1860-1988. (Nelson and Plosser JME 1982, extended)  
S&P prices dividends and earnings, annual, 1871-2007 (Robert Shiller's web site)  
S&P prices dividends and earnings, monthly 1871-2007  (Robert Shiller's web site)  
 US consumption, asset wealth and disposable income, quarterly 1952-2006
(Sydney Ludvigson's website)
 
US GNP,  quarterly 1951-1984 (Hamilton, Econometrica 1989)  
UK Political Party Support 1951-2000 (Byers, Davidson and Peel JRSS(A) 1997)  
River Nile Minima, annual 622-1284 (Hurst's Data, from Beran 1994)  
River Nile Minima, annual 1871-1970 (Cobb, Biometrika 1978)  

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 Reading

The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series (3nd Ed.), T.C.Mills and R Markellos (CUP)    
Applied Econometric Time Series (2nd Ed.), Walter Enders (Wiley)  
 Econometric Theory    (password-protected PDF)  
 Stochastic Limit Theory   (password-protected PDF)  
Chapter 5 of Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics (PDF),    
TSM4 Documentation (PDF)  
Reading list on long memory (PDF)  
"When is a time series I(0)?" (PDF)  

 

Past Exam Papers

Exam Paper 2008

Exam Paper 2009

 

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